September 2023. When I finished the last part “too many too much” half a year ago, I was really convinced this “story” had reached its end. But when I started looking for sponsors several people started asking me: What’s next? Very slowly I changed my mind and asked myself, so what should be next? The energy transition everybody is talking about? The climate change nobody is talking about? So welcome back dear reader, I hope you will find this new part just as interesting as the other ones. Again, there is a strong connection with near future population growth.
Try to answer the next question.
What is always available; it is unimaginable you can’t have it; and you cannot live without it? Please bear in mind this question is posed by someone who lives in The Netherlands in North West Europe. I asked several friends the same question. One said “food”. Some said “the internet” and others showed me their I Phone.
20 Years ago I took a hike. A 10 day walk into the northwestern part of Scotland. Starting in Fort William and ending in Dundonnell. There is only one shop which you reach on day 6. You carry a backpack containing over 20 kilos of clothes, tent, sleeping mat and bag, cooking gear and food. Leave your I Phone at home, no signal. The only thing you can’t take with you is the answer to the question. You have to search and find it while you are walking in “the middle of nowhere”. There you will find the answer. You cannot survive without drinking water.
Humanity’s global freshwater demand/use versus planetary freshwater resource. Main subject in this research and the first chapter. The major sources of information used are published scientific researches. One: The Emerging Global Water Crisis: Managing Scarcity and Conflict Between Water Users, Jury, Vaux, 2007. Two: The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty First Century, NASA, Rodell et all, 2015. Three: United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization World Water Development Report 2018, Unesco, 2018. Four: The 2007 Report on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Five: Water Use and Stress, Ritchie, Roser, 2015. I also “browsed” and visited numerous websites, any text or data I copied is “quoted” and accordingly mentioned as source.
Freshwater resource.
Earth’s atmosphere and oceans were formed 2 billion years ago according to, the most agreed upon, scientific theory and estimations. Having an atmosphere is a major change for a planet. Earth’s atmosphere makes us, as far as we know today, unique in the universe. Because our atmosphere has two special qualities: it allows radiation (sunlight) to pass through but it blocks gases (water vapor). The logical consequence of having an atmosphere is that the global quantity of water has been the same for 2 billion years. During this period there have been only differences in the “form” of water; as water exists as a liquid (salt, fresh), as a gas (water vapor), as a solid (ice, snow, hail and sleet). The global water volume will always be the same, therefore you can say it has a limit.
Freshwater resource.
Of all the liquid water on the planet 97,4% is salt water in oceans and seas. The remaining 2,6% is freshwater suitable for human demand/use. The majority of this percentage is unavailable. It is frozen as polar ice and glaciers. This polar ice contains about 2% of the global freshwater supply. “Humans and all other terrestrial life must subsist on the remaining 0,6%” (The Emerging Global Water Crisis, Jury, Vaux, 2007)
Freshwater demand/use.
Global freshwater quantity is measured as volume flow rate. Local freshwater quantity is calculated in cubic meter/second, global freshwater quantity in cubic kilometer/year. One cubic meter contains a 1000 liters. One cubic kilometer contains 1000 x 1000 x 1000 cubic meters. One cubic kilometer freshwater equals to a 1000 billion liters.
Freshwater resource.
“The potentially available global freshwater resources are divided into groundwater and surface water”(The Emerging Water Crisis, Jury, Vaux, 2007). Freshwater resource for human demand/use is for the bigger part “stored” under the surface as groundwater. Global groundwater resource will be researched in the next chapter. The groundwater “issue” certainly needs this because it has a different “set” of specifics, dynamics, challenges and perspectives. In April 2023 the World Water Development Report 2022 was published in print. It has Groundwater as title. I ordered it at my local bookstore and waiting for it to arrive. I imagine it is the most elaborate and “up to date” groundwater research currently available. Land surface water on the planet is located in different resources; the biggest percentage in lakes; the rest in swamps, wetlands, rivers and reservoirs. “Planetary supplies of freshwater are relatively well characterized. There are no large groundwater deposits in relative accessible locations. Any new resources discovered will be very expensive to develop” (The Emerging Water Crisis, Jury, Vaux, 2007). As I mentioned before: the total volume of global water (liquid, solid, gas) has been, and will be always the same and therefore has a limit. You could say the same for the global volume rate of freshwater potentially available from today’s accessible resources: that also has a limit.
Freshwater resource.
Peculiar in the quoted researches: mountain snow water and melt water from continental glaciers is not mentioned at all. Melt water is a freshwater resource for millions of people in warm and dry seasons, but only temporary available and unevenly distributed.
Freshwater demand/use.
“The global freshwater withdrawal for human demand/use for the year 1900 is estimated at 671 cubic kilometers, for 1950 the estimation is at 1.230 cubic kilometers. The start of the second millennium (2000) has an estimated freshwater withdrawal of 3.790 cubic kilometers” (World in Data Website, Water Use and Stress, global freshwater withdrawals for agriculture, industry, and domestic use, Ritchie, Roser, 2015). To be clear: The sources I quote describe freshwater withdrawal as: freshwater withdrawn + freshwater consumed. As opposed to other current researches, in my opinion complicating the issue. Concluding this section is easy: global annual freshwater withdrawal for human demand/use increased 564% in a century. In the same time period the world population number grew from an estimated 1,6 billion to 6,1 billion; an increase of 381%.
Freshwater resource.
Continental glaciers and mountain snow cover have strong similarities. To exist they both need a temperature below Zero Degrees Celsius. In colder seasons snow falls forming mountain snow cover and snow is also the principal “building block” of a glacier. In colder seasons glaciers grow through the accumulation and transformation of snow cover, into ice. Above Zero Celsius mountain snow melts (only a very small part doesn’t) and a glacier shrinks. To create a freshwater source for warm and dry seasons, especially in regions where other sources are temporary unavailable or very scarce. A resource for large ecosystems and millions of people.
Freshwater demand/use.
“Global annual freshwater withdrawal for human demand/use has been increasing by 1% every year since the 1980s” (World in Data Website). The main driver for this increase is global population growth. The estimated volume rate of global annual freshwater withdrawal reached, for the first time in 2007, the new record number of 4.000 cubic kilometers. If this volume rate is considered as an exact number, not an estimate, the daily global freshwater withdrawal for human demand/use in 2007 would have been 10.958.904.109.589 liters. That is almost 11 Trillion (United Kingdom Trillion, that is 11 followed by 12 zeros) liters. Humanity’s global freshwater withdrawal in one day. I checked the calculation numerous times and I am still struggling to “wrap my head around” this number.
Freshwater resource.
For snow to fall and a glacier to grow you will need a temperature below Zero Degrees Celsius. “Global day and night-time temperature has risen about the same rate” (Report on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). The number of days, and more important, nights below Zero Celsius is decreasing. “Decline in mountain snow pack and mountain snow depth are measured in Western North America and the Swiss Alps. This also results in the decline of mountain snow water”( Report on Climate Change 2007). “In the United States of America, mountain snow water supplies up to 75% reservoir freshwater in western states. In Switzerland mountain snow water boosts water levels in rivers and lakes and replenishes drinking and agricultural water supplies” (Valuing Water Initiative Website). The global rise in temperature increases the melting and shrinking of continental glaciers in warmer seasons. But that is the minor problem. The major problem lies in the decreasing growth of glaciers in colder seasons. Glaciers shrink more than they grow in their annual cycle. In some regions, or at lower altitudes, glaciers are disappearing because they only shrink and stopped growing at all.
Freshwater demand/use.
I decided to use the 2007 estimate of global freshwater withdrawal as a “current” estimate. Estimating the current annual global freshwater withdrawal at 4000 cubic kilometers is “a tricky one”. I can’t find an estimation for 2023. I have seen estimates vary from “3.800 cubic kilometers in 2017” (World Water Development Report 2023, Unesco, 2023). To “3895 cubic kilometers in 2020” (World Bank Open Data Website). To “4600 cubic kilometer in 2018” (Reassessing the projections of the World water Development Report, Boretta, Rosa, 2019). “The uncertainties in making estimates are too great to support a quantitative analysis. The authors argue that the lack of comprehensive monitoring means that conclusions are not based on solid empirical evidence”(The Emerging Water Crisis, Jury, Vaux, 2007). In the current science “language” commonly phrased as “estimates having a high level of uncertainty”. Maybe the safest way is to say: the current annual global human freshwater withdrawal is “at least” 4.000 cubic kilometers.
Freshwater resource.
When I ask: Do you think current global freshwater resources are a cause for concern? You will answer: Why, it’s raining!!! In theory there is absolutely no problem concerning freshwater. Because it rains. It rains an awful lot. There is a tremendous volume rate of freshwater falling from the sky. If this was resulting in an even distribution on the planet, in location as well in time period; if it rains a bit everywhere every day: no problem at all. But you know, as well as I know: in the real world it doesn’t work like this. I would like to add a personal touch: if this “everywhere everyday scenario” would exist we would be living on a pretty boring planet. Lacking the very different ecosystems of today, lacking the diversity that makes life so interesting.
Freshwater demand/use.
There is a similarity between this new part 4 and part 2 called people want protein. Do you remember this: ”The richer a country is, the more meat an average person tends to eat” (Meat and Dairy production, Ritchie, Rosado, Roser, 2009). Freshwater demand/use “works” on the same principle: the richer a country is the more water an average person tends to use. Or formulated like this: “The inter-linkage in between population and economic growth and water demand” (NPJ Clean Water Website, Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report 2018). A few pages back there was a discrepancy. Global freshwater withdrawal from 1900 to 2000 increased 564%. Global population growth in the same time period was “only” 381%. The difference can be explained by looking at a century of increasing industrialization, urbanization and drastic changes in consuming patterns. The world in 1900 looked very different from today, to describe all the changes I chose just one aspect. “Urban living is a very recent development. In 1900 84% of the global population lived in rural areas. Of 1.6 billion people 256 million lived in urban settings” (World in Data Website, Urbanization, Ritchie, Roser, 2018). “Comparing rural life to urban life: the significant increase in domestic water demand is attributed to the increase in water supply services to urban settlements” ( World Water Development Report 2018). People in cities use more water because more water services are available. In 2023 a number of 4560 million people live in cities, towns, and villages. This is 57% of the global population, and this percentage is estimated to increase to 77% in 2050. In my opinion the discrepancy between 564% and 381% is solved, by looking at a century of increasing socio–economic development.
Freshwater resource.
Liquid water on the surface of our planet evaporates into the atmosphere as water vapor. Water vapor condensates into liquid and falls back to the surface as precipitation. A small part as snow: “About 5% of the total precipitation falls as snow”( Levizzani et all, 2011). The water cycle in its basic principle. “Shiklomanov, Gleick, 1993 estimates that each year about 502.800 cubic kilometers water evaporates over the oceans and seas” (United Nations Environment Program Website). And you must have heard the phrase: what goes up must come down. “Approximately 505.000 cubic kilometers of water falls down as precipitation each year, 398.000 over oceans and 107.000 over land” (Wikipedia Website, Precipitation).
Freshwater resource.
A NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) research published July 2015 in the Journal of Climate estimates: “Each year heat from the sun evaporates 449.500 cubic kilometers water from the world’s oceans. On land 70.600 cubic kilometers of water evaporates from soil and plants” (The Observed State of the Water Cycle, NASA, Rodell et all, 2015). Totaling “what must come down” a precipitation volume rate of 502.100 cubic Kilometers. That is over a 120 fold of annual global human demand/use, estimated at 4000 cubic kilometers. “The NASA research made use of 25 satellites, on a 10 year survey (2000 – 2010) of our planet’s water cycle. The resulting data/estimates are based on satellite measurement first and data integrating models second” (NASA, Global Climate Change Website). I have decided to “quote” this research because it is extensive (10 years) and recently published (2015). “The study also calculated that 403.000 cubic kilometers precipitation fall (straight back in) over the ocean each year and 116.500 fall over land surface”( The Observed State of the Water Cycle, NASA, Rodell et all, 2015). To finish this section: this 116.500 cubic kilometers of freshwater is the staggering volume rate that falls over our heads every year. Like I said: it rains an awful lot.
Freshwater demand/use.
Human needs for freshwater take precedence over other demands. This is a hazardous behavior because a human is not the only living creature on this planet. Humans cannot survive without Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems, ecosystems cannot survive without freshwater. Of all species on the planet 10% live in freshwater, it is their habitat. “Postal et all, estimates that about 18% of all available freshwater in 1990 was used directly by humans, and an additional 34% is required to maintain adequate ecological health” (The Emerging Water Crisis, Jung, Vaux, 2007).
Freshwater resource.
Where and when annual global land surface rain falls is unevenly distributed over the planet. There are regions with an annual moderate and sufficient volume of rain, enough for ecosystems and human freshwater demand/use. There are very large areas with shortage and even extreme droughts. And regions with excessive amounts of rain and severe floodings. The period in time in which rain falls, or not falls, is determined by the annual cycle of seasons. A well-known example is the Monsoon in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The summer season, from April to September, brings a humid climate with loads and loads of rain. The winter season, October to April, brings a warm and dry climate with barely a shower of rain.
Freshwater resource.
“The water cycle is often taught as a circular cycle of evaporation, condensation and precipitation. Although this can be a useful model, the reality is much more complicated” (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA Website). It may sound strange to you but where rain touches the land surface of our planet there are a lot of “options”. “The water cycle has many processes. Infiltration: liquid water flows into the ground. Percolation: liquid water flows through the ground. Runoff: liquid water flows across land. Evaporation: liquid water evaporates from land. Transpiration: the water movement through a plant.” (NOAA Website). Land surface rain is a huge potentially available freshwater resource. What I am trying to “find out” is: how much of this staggering resource “goes through” all this processes of the water cycle? And what is the volume rate available for human demand/use after that? To finally establish if there is cause for concern regarding current available global freshwater resources. Or not, because “it rains!!!
Freshwater resource.
“Of the annual global land surface precipitation 60% evaporates into the atmosphere”(The Observed State of the Water Cycle, NASA, Rodell et all, 2015). It took me 3 weeks to find that “evaporates” is not the appropriate term to account for this 60%, a volume rate of 70.600 cubic kilometers. “Evapotranspiration is the sum of all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration” (United States Governmental Science Website). 70.600 Cubic kilometers evaporates and transpires into the atmosphere. This includes 3 processes. Infiltration: liquid water flows into the ground. Transpiration: the water movement through a plant. Plants “take up” infiltrated water, use 0,5%-3% for growth, the remaining 97-99,5% leaves the plant (transpires) as water vapor. Plants, crops, bushes/shrubs and trees, they all transpire. Anything with roots on one end and leaves, stems, flowers, seeds, fruit or needles at the other. It is transpiration through which terrestrial ecosystems grow and prosper, through which agriculture provides us with food. The annual global evapotranspiration volume rate is for the biggest part a transpiration volume rate. The smaller part is process number 3. Evaporation: liquid water evaporates from land. Land surface evaporation is mainly evaporating soil moisture.
Freshwater resource.
“Of the annual global land surface precipitation 39% runs through streams and rivers into oceans and seas” (The Observed State of the Water Cycle, NASA, Rodell et all, 2015). The proper name for this 39%, a volume rate of 45.900 cubic kilometers is runoff. “Runoff: liquid water flows across land” (NOAA Website).
Freshwater resource.
Have you, dear reader, noticed what is happening here? Just a few pages ago I started with 502.100 cubic kilometers of freshwater falling from the sky every year, a 120 fold volume rate of freshwater demanded/used by humans every year. On the next page reduced to an estimate of 116.500 cubic kilometers, “the part that falls over our heads”. A 29 fold of annual human demand/use. And just now reduced to runoff, 45.900 cubic kilometers of potentially available freshwater. From a potentially available resource a 120 fold; to a resource roughly an 11 fold of annual global human demand/use. And I haven’t finished yet. Of the 5 processes of the global water cycle, I have “ticked the boxes” of 3, another 2 to go.
Freshwater demand/use.
I think I have made clear that current estimates of annual global freshwater withdrawal can be “very flexible”. The quoted NASA research estimates an annual global withdrawal at 9100 cubic kilometer for the period 2000-2010; where did that come from?! When you “google” global freshwater withdrawal 2050 you will not find an “exact” estimate for that year. You will find only “random” ones. Unesco (United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization) “estimates a growth of annual global freshwater withdrawal by 10–12% every 10 years, reaching approximately 5.240 cubic kilometers in 2025”. Another one: “a global freshwater withdrawal in 2050 between 5.500 and 6.000 cubic kilometers” (World Water Development Report 2018, Unesco, 2018). The Report also states: “these estimations of future population and water demand are the best we have, though it is realized such forecasts are difficult”.
Freshwater demand/use.
Human freshwater withdrawal from river runoff, a potentially available freshwater resource of 45.900 cubic kilometers, is “differential”. It varies strongly from extreme overuse (overdraft) in high density populated urban and industrialized areas, to a low withdrawal in sparsely populated rural areas. The variation is also huge between irrigated agricultural areas with huge freshwater demands, to areas that have rainfed agriculture. And 29% of global land surface is unhabitable, not suited for human purposes. 43 Million square kilometers, where river runoff is not touched by human hands. Like I experienced in northwestern Scotland.
Freshwater resource.
“Percolation: liquid water flows through the ground” (NOAA Website). This does not mean it is lost as potentially available freshwater resource. Not at all. Percolation is the annual global groundwater recharge volume rate. Liquid water that flows through the ground replenishes our “other” freshwater resource: groundwater .The freshwater resource under the surface. As mentioned before: groundwater is the next chapter of this research. Percolation is the part of the “rain budget” that is not directly available as surface water resource.
Freshwater demand/use.
The other research I frequently quoted takes a slightly different approach on estimating near future annual global freshwater withdrawal. It estimates future global freshwater withdrawal in the “Business as Usual Assumption; assuming global population will grow and make no changes in consuming patterns” (The Emerging Water Crisis, Jung, Vaux, 2007). This research estimates “an additional 4.600 cubic kilometers will have to be found by 2025 to supplement global supplies (of freshwater resources) at the 1995 level”. The research also states: if the additional 1.2 billion population increase between 2025 and 2050 proves correct, another increase of 3.090 cubic kilometers is necessary by 2050”. To eventually drawing the same conclusion as I did: ”this leads to the staggering conclusion that nearly 7.700 cubic kilometers would have to be found by 2050 to supplement global supplies (of freshwater resources) at the 1995 level” (The Emerging Water Crisis, Jung, Vaux, 2007).
Freshwater demand/use.
The NPJ Clean Water Website describes the United Nations estimate of global 2050 freshwater withdrawal at 5.500 – 6.000 cubic kilometers as: “not to be very accurate and likely optimistic” (Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report, Boretta, Rosa, 2019). Which is peculiar, because in the same World Water Development Report a sequence of quite different estimations are mentioned. “Non -agricultural freshwater demand will increase substantially in the near future, driven by global population increase and social-economic development”. This is reflected in the “very bold” estimates in following components of economic growth. “Global manufacturing water demand is estimated to increase 400% from 2010 to 2050; global energy water demand is estimated to increase 85% from 2010 to 2035; industrial water demand increase in Africa estimated at 800%, Asia at 300% from 2010 to 2050; domestic water demand is estimated to increase 300% in Asia and Africa, 200% in South America” (NPJ Clean Water Website, Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report, Borretti, Rosa, 2019). Finally, although the increase in non-agricultural water demand exceeds the increase in agricultural water demand; global freshwater withdrawal for agriculture will remain the largest in 2050.
Freshwater resource.
“The Amazon River is the world’s largest , widest and deepest river. It’s runoff discharge exceeds the combined discharge of the world’s nine next longest rivers” (Wikipedia Website, Amazon River). It has an estimated annual runoff volume rate of 6.932 cubic kilometers freshwater; the Amazon River Basin covers a surface of 7 million square kilometers. I have seen population estimates from 30 to 47 million people living in the Basin. It doesn’t matter which it is, the logical conclusion is: freshwater transported by the Amazon River is barely touched by human hands on its journey to the Atlantic Ocean. The Ganges River in India is over 2000 kilometers long and has the most populated basin in the world, estimated at 400 million people. As this population grows water demands for agriculture increase, straining and lowering water levels. Siberia is a huge country populated with only 36 million people. North Siberia has 5 huge rivers all of which eventually empty in the Arctic Ocean, barely touched by human hands. The Colorado River is one of the principal rivers, along with the Rio Grande in South West United States. The Colorado River is the only and vital freshwater resource for 40 million people. The Colorado River is an example of a “developed” river, it has 15 dams in its main stream. “An extensive system of dams, reservoirs and aqueducts divert almost its entire flow for agricultural irrigation and urban water supply” (Wikipedia Website). In the year 2000 it stopped raining for two decades in the southwestern United States, but freshwater withdrawal kept going in the “business as usual scenario” “Colorado River Basin is drying up due to a combination of overuse of water resources and a historic drought” (Washington Post Website). Intensive water withdrawal, first for irrigation and second for urban (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix) water supply has dried up the lower 160 kilometers of the river. Freshwater runoff has rarely reached the Golf of California since the 1960s.
Freshwater resource.
“Percolation: liquid water flows through the ground” (NOAA Website). Also called groundwater recharge or replenishment. The “odd duck” in the NASA research, the missing link in the equation. Looking at the NASA research: infiltration + evaporation + transpiration + runoff equals exactly the annual land surface precipitation volume rate. 70.600 + 45.900 + equals exactly 116.500 cubic kilometers. What goes up must come down. The fifth component of the global water cycle, percolation, is left out of the equation. Which is peculiar. Because the NASA did research this component and even made an estimate. “In addition to global numbers the researchers calculated water cycle estimates for each of seven land masses, the amount of water per year that precipitates, evaporates, transpires, runs off, or soaks into groundwater storage” ( NASA, Global Climate Change Website). This is visualized in a pictogram. I simply added up the perculation estimates for each of the landmasses. “The part that sinks into groundwater storage” also called groundwater recharge is estimated at 9200 cubic kilometers. From the annual global land surface precipitation, a volume rate of 116.500 cubic kilometers, 9.200 cubic kilometers percolate into groundwater storage. But why this is left out of the equation is still a mystery to me.
Freshwater demand/use.
I presented the “at least” estimate of current annual global human freshwater withdrawal a while ago. I imagined it to be a real number instead of an estimate and calculated an “at least real number” for the current daily global human freshwater withdrawal. If you experienced this as intimidating, controversial, or confrontational I apologize for that. I just used the calculator on my I Phone, that’s all. I would like to do it again now. It’s easy, 4.000 cubic kilometers of freshwater is 4.000 trillion liters. As this research is an attempt to communicate in “United Kingdom English”, this means you have to add 12 zero’s. If you have this number in your calculator, divide by 365 and divide by 24. Now you have found the “at least real number” current global freshwater withdrawal demanded/used by the human race every hour. Which is fourhundredfiftysixbillion – sixhundredtwentyone million – fourthousand – fivehundredsixtysix liters. In one hour we use 456.621.004.566 liters of freshwater. I invite you to “wrap your head around” this number.
Freshwater resource.
I am aware of the fact that millions of people have to walk for miles every day to obtain their daily supply of freshwater. On our planet we have huge areas where water is very scarce or even unavailable. The number of “water stressed” and/or “water scarce” countries varies from 9 to 25 to 40; depending on what classification is used. The number of global households primarily using bottled water is estimated at 600 million. Due to the expected population growth in Asia, Africa and South America this number will increase substantial. For all these people, experiencing a shortage of water, the local freshwater resources are a cause for concern, or even alarm.
Freshwater resource.
When I looked for the first time at the tremendous volume rate of annual global rain that is provided by the water cycle I thought: Yes, of course!! Of course it takes away any cause for concern. The volume rate of annual global rain is over a 120 fold of what humans demand/use in a year.
Freshwater resource.
Very wet, the opposite of very dry, is also reality for millions of people. In the Mediterranean region is a relatively new phenomenon: the Medicane. The Mediterranean Hurricane. In the 2022-2023 Medicane Season the medicane Latifa lasted 7 days, bringing hurricane 160 miles/hour winds, loads and loads of torrential rains and severe floodings. Medicane Daniel hit Libya with torrential rains causing two dams near the city of Derba to collapse. The resulting flood flushed one third of the city into the Mediterranean Sea, drowning an estimated 4000 to 5000 people. Totally, Medicane Season 2022-2023 brought 16 storms. In Pakistan, August 2022, a so called extended monsoon season flooded 33 million people out of their homes, ruined their crops, and drowned their life stock. For all these people, experiencing an excessive volume of water, the local freshwater resources are a cause for concern, or even alarm.
Freshwater demand/use.
Looking at the current estimates of global freshwater withdrawal one phrase comes to mind: they can be “very flexible”. Remember? “The uncertainties in making estimates are too great to support a quantitative analysis” (The Emerging Global Water Crisis, Jury, Vaux, 2007). And how about calculating future estimations? Using my common sense: isn’t this calculating a future estimate based upon a current estimate? The Emerging Global Water Crisis research states: “the numbers represent an extrapolation and employ average estimates. This extrapolation to water planning and forecasts have proved to be notoriously unreliable” (Jury, Vaux, 2007).
Freshwater resource.
When I looked for the second time at the annual global awful lot of rain I expected there would be a substantial part “redundant” and available for human purposes. I Could not be more wrong. After months of researching the “ins and outs” of the annual global water cycle I finally realized: there isn’t a substantial redundant freshwater resource, free to use by the human race. Every component of the water cycle has its own purpose, its “part to play”. The annual global water cycle provides freshwater for all global freshwater demand. For all life and all species on the planet. Humankind is just one of these many, many species.
Freshwater resource.
The global number of lakes is open for debate. “The research used an automated algorithm called GWEM (GeoCoverTM Water Bodies Extraction Method), the research found 117 million lakes larger than 0,0002 square kilometers” (Geography Realm Website). “We map 3,4 million lakes on a global scale” (Mapping lake dynamics, Xuehi Pi et all, 2022). “Our research estimates a number of 307 million lakes as scientists analyzed data from fine-resolution geographical information systems” (Current Results Website). Like I said: open for debate. Mental.
Freshwater resource.
I always assumed groundwater to be an enormous resource, and it is, in a global context. I always assumed groundwater to be separated from surface water, and a giant resource explicitly or exclusively for human purposes. Generally assumed to have no limitations for withdrawal, in a global context. And even, according to the NASA research, replenished with 9.200 cubic kilometers every year. Groundwater is always available, there is no seasonal cycle involved, it is unimaginable you can’t have it. That is how I started this research, remember? Taking a few “sneak previews” for the next chapter proved me wrong again. There can be strong connections between groundwater and surface water. Groundwater is not for human purposes only. Groundwater is a freshwater resource for all global demand. It is generally assumed global human groundwater withdrawal is not a problem because the global groundwater resources have an overwhelming volume rate. Wrong again. An unlimited local groundwater withdrawal can lead to severe consequences regarding local surface water resources. Because groundwater can be in connection with surface water.
Freshwater resource.
How to determine the global amount of lakes by using our common sense, very unscientific I’m afraid. The first step: define a lake. A lake is not a puddle, pool or pond. The second step: AFK. A term from the online game world which means going to the refrigerator for your energy drink, or toilet. Away from keyword. Dear researchers on this planet: step away from your keyboard. Put on your hiking shoes like I did. Stop modeling and start monitoring. In short: define a lake, go out and start counting. It is mentioned before: “The authors argue that the lack of comprehensive monitoring means that conclusions are not based on solid empirical evidence” (The Emerging Water Crisis, Jury, Vaux, 2007).
Freshwater demand/use.
I am sorry it took so long. For me it lasted 4 months of daily research, writing, new research and rewriting. But I thought it necessary to “tick all the boxes”. And that is “tricky one”, quite a challenge as I was encountering numerous researches, researches having numerous calculations and estimations. To find the “key word” to conclude this chapter also took me a few weeks. That key word is proportional. Looking at the annual global water cycle, its components are “in proportion”. The global water cycle enables all life and many, many species to “thrive and prosper”. Proportional withdrawal equals proportional resource. Global human freshwater withdrawal is a cause for concern regarding global freshwater resources. Because human freshwater withdrawal is “out of proportion”. Disproportional. We are just one of many, many species. Of all species on our planet we are number one in freshwater withdrawal. Our current freshwater withdrawal is 456.621.004.566 liters in one hour, at least. By demanding/using a disproportional part of global/local freshwater resources we unbalance the water cycle. By demanding/using a disproportional part of global/local freshwater resources we deprive other life on this planet from their proportional resources. Current human behavior is a cause for concern, our freshwater withdrawal unbalances the availability of freshwater resources for other life on Earth.
Freshwater demand/use.
If you want to see the effects of disproportional surface water withdrawal: take a trip to the Colorado River. Or the Nile River in northern Africa with 30 large and 300 small dams. Or the Zambesi River in southern Africa with 30 large and 4 XL dams for hydropower. Or the Yangtze River in central Asia with numerous small and the XXL Three Gorges Dam. Or the Amazon River in South America with 0 (!) dams in its main stream, but 412 dams in its tributary rivers. The Indus River in central Asia with 39 large dams. The Donau/Danube River in central Europe with more than 700 dams and weirs. I can do this forever. Dams are “all over the place”: 57000 larges ones (over 15 meters high), 300 major dams (XL and XXL over 150 meters high) and numerous small dams over the planet. The general principle of a dam is to store water by creating a reservoir. The purpose of storing water can be flood control, hydroelectricity, irrigation or urban water supply. The difference in purpose does not change the general principle: to store water. “To store” is not the proper term to use: actually water is being collected. That is exactly the major problem. By collecting water in a reservoir a disproportional volume of water is withdrawn from the river. Water that is supposed to flow, to run off. By collecting water everything that grows and lives at “the lower side of the dam” is deprived of its proportional resources.
Freshwater demand/use.
The effects of a disproportional surface freshwater withdrawal, in a worst case scenario, are visible in south east Asia, the Mekong River. The Mekong “starts” in the Himalaya, continental glacier melt water its original source. Mekong River is 4350 kilometer long, enters and leaves 6 countries and “ends” in the South Chinese Sea. “The Mekong River is also called the Battery of South-East Asia. The Mekong has the fastest growing hydropower construction of any large river basin worldwide” (Wikipedia, Mekong Website). “The Mekong River has more than 160 hydropower dams operating through the Basin, including 13 XL dams on the main stream. Some 34 hydropower projects are under construction since March 2023” (As hydropower dams quell the Mekong’s life force, what are the cost?, Carolyn Cowan, March 2023, Mongabay Website). Numerous more are in the planning stage. The upper Basin is changed from a thundering and tumbling river to a “mega staircase” of eleven reservoirs created by a sequence of eleven hydroelectric dams. “All life and ecosystems in the Mekong Basin are based on the annual wet season / dry season flow cycle of the Monsoon. Ecosystems have developed in step with this ancient rhythm” (Mongabay Website). Hydropower dam operators do not want “high’s and low’s”, for optimal hydropower generation they prefer a steady constant flow. Operators restrict water in wet seasons, filling their reservoirs; and release water in dry seasons. Restricting water flowing in wet season, no more flooding of the “food plains”, no deposit of sediment to fertilize ecosystems and crop fields. By releasing water in the dry season farmers are unable to work on their fields or herding their life stock. Exactly the opposite to the natural annual flow cycle. Farmers say: “I do not understand what the river wants”. Due to the lack of sediment deposit ecosystems collapse and riverbanks are eroding. “According to Gary Lee, Southeast Asia program director of International Rivers: large scale dams are disrupting the flow of water and sediments and damaging key aquatic ecosystems and resources” (Mongabay Website). The major aquatic ecosystem is migration of fish. Fish migrate. They what? “More than 1000 types of freshwater fish migrate seasonally up and down the river to reproduce. The Mekong yields one-fifth of the world’s total freshwater catch every year” (Mongabay Website). To reproduce fish return to their “birth water”. A very carefully chosen very specific stretch of the river. Usually “way up” Mekong River and its tributaries, looking for pristine water quality and no predator around. I imagine you see the problem. In research called: severed migration routes. In reality the majority of birth waters is no longer accessible. The Mekong River Commission research in 2002 states: “Water management projects such as hydroelectric dams could impact those migrations and negatively affect the livelihoods of a large number of people” (Fish migrations of the Lower Mekong Basin: implications for development , planning and environmental management, MRC, October 2002). A large number of people is an understatement. “It is estimated that 40 million rural people in the Lower Mekong Basin are engaged in the wild capture fishery. Dam projects on the Mekong River will reduce aquatic life by 40% in 2020, and an estimated 80% of fish will be depleted in 2040”( Wikipedia, Mekong Website).
Freshwater demand/use.
In the 1970s the Mekong Delta was meant to be “Vietnam’s Rice Bowl” The Vietnamese government started a program to become the world’s largest exporter of rice. The current reality in the Delta is quite different from the 1970s. The Mekong Delta is where all previously mentioned effects of Mekong’s disproportional withdrawal of surface freshwater resources “add up”. Sediment deposit is not only the perfect fertilizer, it also creates and “builds up” land in the Delta. Where I live the ground I walk on is created by the sediment transport of the Rhine River, a major River in Europe. If there is no sediment deposit in a coastal area, the sea or ocean will eventually “claim it back”. “Subsidence: sinking of the ground because of underground material movement” (NOAA Website). Groundwater is a part of the structural integrity of the bottom under your feet. Overdraft of local groundwater resources can lead to subsidence. In the Mekong Delta available groundwater resources are being used excessively for agricultural purposes; also the Delta is being used for “sand mining”, sand is a resource for building houses and infrastructure for an increasing population number. Sediment deposit could have been a compensating factor, but there isn’t any. The combination of groundwater overdraft, sand mining and lacking sediment deposit is the cause for land subsidence, the bottom of the Delta is, very slowly, sinking. “The Mekong Delta inexorable sinks” (Mongabay Website). Adding up this effect with the other previously mentioned brings us to the ultimate effect. In the Mekong Delta not only freshwater is flowing out, seawater is flowing in. “Record low water level of the waterways and rivers are causing salt water intrusion that is reaching far inland, up to 90 kilometers from the estuaries, wiping out crops and contaminating water supplies” (Asia Times Website). Local groundwater resources are being replenished by the incoming South Chinese Sea, rendering them unavailable for human demand/use. Local economy switched from growing rice to growing prawns and seaweed. The Rice Bowl is broken. “Agricultural researchers warn that the entire Mekong Delta, home to more than 20 million people, could be mostly under water within a generation” (Asia Times Website).
Freshwater resource.
To find an example for disproportional groundwater withdrawal was easy. Jakarta sinks. The capital city of Indonesia sinks into the Jakarta Bay. The “quotes” in this section are from the National Geographic Website: “Jakarta is sinking, can the government save it”, Renaldi, 2022. That Jakarta sinks is, for a part, to blame on my ancestors. “When the Dutch (from the Netherlands) colonized Indonesia in 1619 they began transforming the city to make it resemble a typical Dutch town” Jakarta sits in a delta with 13 rivers flooding in the annual monsoon cycle. The Dutch don’t like floodings. So the Dutch dug canals for flow regulation and lesser flooding. We, the Dutch, are very good at that. What we didn’t know is our behavior created a problem. “The alluvial soil of the delta compacts over time, causing the land to subside (sink) unless it is continually replenished with new sediment”. Lesser and shorter floodings create a lack of necessary sediment deposit. Since the 1990s the number and volume of floodings is changing. Major floods have happened every few years due to global climate change. But this change does not solve the lack of sediment deposit. Because 1990s Jakarta is not like 17th century Jakarta. Jakarta is turned into a megacity. Massive urbanization has exacerbated the situation. Widespread replacement of floodplains, forests and other vegetation has reduced how much water and sediment can be absorbed. Because vegetation is replaced by concrete and pavements. Resulting in massive runoff and even flash floodings. Sediment deposit is not possible on concrete and pavements. And still it is safe to say the lack of sediment deposit is a minor problem. “Jakarta has an estimated population number of 11,4 million” (Macrotrend Website). The major problem is that Jakarta’s millions of people are “on top” of their freshwater resources. Surface water in the city is unavailable for consumption. “More than 90% of municipal wastewater is discharged untreated into waterways” (Circleofblue.org Website). Jakarta’s rivers are the city’s toilet, flushing raw sewage into Jakarta Bay. Jakarta is indeed “sitting on” its only available freshwater resource: groundwater.
Freshwater demand/use.
“Jakarta’s piped water system serves fewer than 1 million households”. Looking at the current fertility rate of Indonesia brings us to “around” 4,5 million people having access to governmental issued freshwater. The majority of the city’s population, “around” 7 million people have no running water from a communal tap. 7 Million people rely primarily on pumping groundwater. “Such pumping is not illegal, but only allowed subject to taxation. “The provincial government is unable to monitor and tax the untold number of unregulated deep wells scattered across the city”. To understand what that means I have another quote: “In May, the Jakarta city authority inspected 80 buildings in Central Jakarta’s Jalan Tharmin, a road lined with skyscrapers, shopping malls and hotels. It found that 56 buildings had their own groundwater pump and 33 were extracting water illegally”. (Jakarta, the fastest sinking city in the world, Mei, Hildegard, 2018, BBC News Website). One road in a megacity, 70% is pumping groundwater, of which 40% is illegal. The government estimated groundwater withdrawal in 2018 at 8 billion liters. In my humble opinion a pretty wild guess, due to the former statement: “the provincial government is unable to monitor and tax the untold number of unregulated deep wells”. And the city is still growing. “Independent researchers in 2011 estimated Jakarta had already used an alarming 64% of its groundwater reserves” (National Geographic Website). Which brings us to the major problem, subsidence. Jakarta sinks due to a disproportional groundwater withdrawal. “Subsidence, sinking of the ground because of underground material movement” (NOAA Website). Groundwater resources are a part of the structural integrity of the bottom under our feet. By withdrawing approximately two-thirds (64%) of groundwater resources Jakarta is sinking. “Jakarta is now sinking at a truly alarming rate that is variable across the city”. Estimations for the south are at 1 to 3 centimeters, for the north at 15 to 30 centimeters. Every year. “About 40% of the city is below sea level” In Jakarta real estate is still in the business as usual modus. “None of this has deterred property developers. More and more luxury apartments dot the north Jakarta skyline, regardless of the risks. The head of the advisory council for Indonesia’s Association of Housing Development, Eddy Ganefo, says he has urged the government to halt further development here. But, he says, as long as we can sell apartments, development will continue” (BBC news Website). Mental.
Freshwater resource.
There is another minor problem to mention. Or maybe not so minor for the long term future of Jakarta. In the distant past the monsoon water cycle in the delta provided 5 months of flooding and groundwater recharge. Surface water and groundwater were connected during floods. Flood plains, forests and abundant vegetation were covered by floods, surface water percolated into groundwater resources. “Percolation: water flows through the ground” (NOAA Website). Again, Jakarta is a megacity today. Surface water does not percolate through concrete and pavements, it runs off to Jakarta Bay. No groundwater replenishment/recharge means Jakarta’s groundwater resources have a definitive limit. A grim message for the long term future in which it is possible that ever increasing withdrawal can “empty” groundwater resources. The local government, aware of the issue “adopted a regulation requiring at least 30% of the city to be allocated to green., open space”. The regulation was installed in 2007, today less than 10% of the city is green.
The first part of the National Geographic article: “Jakarta sinks” is now answered. What about the second part: “can the government save it”. The governmental response to Jakarta’s current “issues” is reflected in two major action plans. The first action plan has 2 different phases. The first phase started in 2014: the construction of the Coastal Wall. To protect vulnerable communities along the north coast facing a grim reality: subsidence, sea level rise and storm surges. The coastal wall will be 28 miles long, 8 miles are already built. Critics think “the coastal wall is at best a temporary solution”. It will sink at the same rate as northern Jakarta does. The second phase has a lot more grandeur: The Giant Sea Wall. A wall offshore in Jakarta Bay, including a 20 mile long artificial island shaped in the form of Garuda, the national “giant bird” symbol. To be developed resembling the Palm Islands of Dubai with its state of the art skyscrapers. The cost of the Giant Sea Wall have been estimated at 20 to 58 billion American Dollars; it is still in the design and planning stage, funding for construction is unknown, the government hasn’t announced a start date. Critics say: “the Great Sea Wall would obstruct the flow of 13 rivers, turning Jakarta Bay into a giant pool of sewage”. The basic flaw in both phases of the project is its failure to address the disproportional withdrawal of groundwater resources, the major cause of Jakarta’s land subsidence. The city won’t stop sinking. The second major plan has an entirely different approach. Nunsantara, the new Jakarta. In April 2019 the government announced to build a new capital on the island Borneo, 1300 kilometers from the current capital. Construction of Nunsantara started in July 2022 and should be completed in 2045. In February 2024 the new capital city’s infrastructure is 14% completed. “Construction worker (some 7000) dormitories, basic roads and a helipad are already being used. Construction of the presidential palace should be completed by summer 2024. The new capital is expected to be inaugurated on August 17 2024” (Euronews.green Website, Indonesia unveils construction site of new capital city, Hannah Brown, 2023).
Freshwater resource versus freshwater demand/use.
This last section is not for the people who walk miles every day to obtain their daily supply of freshwater. They know. Not for people who have only bottled water available for primary use. They know. Not for people on a hike in northwest Scotland. They know. On our planet 2.7 billion people are living in areas where freshwater is scarce or unavailable for one month in a year. They know. This last section is for the majority of the world population, for those who forgot. They live, work and have children in areas where freshwater is an available resource. They assume freshwater resources are a commodity. Or a service. Or a product. They forgot what our freshwater resources are. Freshwater resources are a basic necessity. And freshwater resources have a limit.